According to the latest data from China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.1050 on December 27, breaking through the 6.11 mark, a sharp increase of 106 basis points from the previous trading day, and once again refreshing the historical high point of the exchange reform. So far, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar has risen by nearly 3% this year. In 2013, the renminbi exchange rate under the effect of the superposition of internal and external factors showed a unilateral accelerated appreciation trend. In December, the appreciation of the renminbi reappeared strongly. As of the 20th trading day on the 27th, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar hit a new high in exchange rate reforms, with a cumulative appreciation of 279 basis points.
Looking forward to 2014, the prevailing view in the market is that although the Fed decided to reduce the QE plan this month, the pace and scale of the reduction are relatively mild. In this context, global liquidity is still abundant, and the central banks in most countries still Pursuing the monetary easing policy, it can be seen that the spread between China and foreign countries is still relatively large. At the same time, China's current economic growth is worse than expected, but the economic operation is generally stable. Under the combined effect of the two factors, it will continue to attract foreign capital into the territory.
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, said that the current renminbi was kidnapped by the US dollar. The Fed's reduction of QE is a warm-water boiled frog. It is a gradual process, so the impact will not be too great. However, after a few years, once the Fed raises interest rates, its impact on China will be enormous. "The key to solving the problem is to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism as soon as possible, so that the impact of the Fed's policies on the Chinese economy will be reduced."
In fact, this year, the regulatory authorities have repeatedly stated on different occasions that they will further expand the floating range of the RMB exchange rate. The Central Economic Work Conference, which has just ended recently, has once again proposed to “promote the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism”, which has caused strong market expectations. On the other hand, the overestimation of the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi may not be a small impact on some of China's export enterprises and even on China's economy, causing the market to increasingly increase the volatility of exchange rate fluctuations.
According to market analysis, the pace of exchange rate marketization reform in 2014 is expected to accelerate. The Bank of China International Finance Research Institute recently released a research report saying that on the basis of further improvement of the market interest rate pricing system and the vigorous development of market-based pricing products, the formation of market prices means that the transaction level reduces the central bank’s intervention level to the middle price. Adjust the composition and weight of the “money basket” at the institutional level, and accelerate the development of the exchange rate derivatives market at the market level.